Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
