1. The Villa Heist: Rogers & Emery's Masterclass
Are match outcomes sometimes deceive? It's a valid query. Villa's run of victories persisted with a win over Manchester United, accompanied by the persistent questions. They were the lesser team by a number of key indicators – less attempts (12-15), less possession (43-57), a scarcity of clear opportunities (2-3). Typically, the victory was a slender one. As usual, the xG metric painted a different picture: analysis indicates United edged it 1.31-1.02. Yet the reality is games are not won by xG. They are won by collective effort, shrewd management and sparkling skill – and Villa have all three. Morgan Rogers might just be their sole standout, but he’s delivering as a timely gift. The Spanish tactician is wily, battle-hardened, five years ahead of the United boss. If Rogers profited from a defensive lapse, this was almost certainly because the coach had detected that Yoro was playing out of position, and instructed his winger to start wide, cut in and torment him. Skill and strategy, working together.
2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short
Following United's victory over Brighton 4-2 on 25 October, their fans began to believe again. They secured three league games on the bounce for the first time under their manager. They had risen to fourth. And the wins were impressive victories – over Brighton (one of their many bogey teams), Liverpool (at Anfield!) and Sunderland (at Old Trafford, against a promoted club, but still – a routine shutout). Senne Lammens looked solid, the attack was exciting and optimism was growing. But then United went back to black. Eight games, a mere pair of successes, six missed opportunities. At Villa Park they were the more dominant side without ever looking like winning. Yes, Matheus Cunha scored an excellent finish, but he also blazed over a simple chance. Yes, United were hit by fitness issues (to influential figures), but they were punished for defensive errors. Since his arrival in England, the manager has yet to solve how to win consistently.
3. Arsenal Grind Out a Vital Victory
It was an 8pm kick-off on the festive weekend but a noticeable shortage of fluency in the final third made for a drab affair. For Everton, the issue came as no surprise with offensive players absent, and Jack Grealish failing to inspire an entire team on his own. In many respects it is astonishing that the Toffees occupied a European spot in the table recently given they have played the whole campaign without a proven goalscorer. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he enjoyed a merited victory and a return to the top of the table, the flaw should be of similar concern given their ambitions for the Premier League. He stated that winning margins will inevitably grow more comfortable with graft and determination. But it is a little early in the season for a team that can start with world-class talents, while leaving quality substitutes on the bench, to be needing to win ugly.
4. Guardiola's Strict Festive Regime for Champions
Over the festive period the City manager will conduct fitness tests to ensure his Manchester City players have not enjoyed excessive celebrations. Guardiola said the team wanted to enjoy a break after their latest win but he refused because their display lacked quality. So it's recovery, work for those who didn't feature, and post-holiday, then 48 hours of preparation for the next fixture. The manager outlined how improvements can be made. “I excel at analyzing what happens in the game, where are the spaces – if the players were in optimal spots, we could be more potent.” Pep also intends to enjoy a rest: “I have holidays with the family to relax. I'll visit Barcelona – it's a great city, the food is top.”
5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow
Alexander Isak’s goal at Tottenham felt, for a fleeting moment, like a statement. This was the very purpose Liverpool invested heavily for him to do, to decide close contests with his movement and range of finishing, and the assurance with which he finished from good service looked extremely positive. So the image of him leaving immediately, due to a ill-judged tackle, was a major worry for Arne Slot and disappointing for the spectator who would like to see a top-class forward reach his peak again. Reports suggest Isak has sustained a fractured leg and he could be in for a long time on the sidelines. It would be a significant setback with the Reds having quietly moved into the upper echelons, putting together a solid undefeated streak bookended by Isak’s maiden league strikes in their colours. Their fortunes this season appear tied up with those of their £125m investment.
6. Penalty Debate Rages After Newcastle Draw
Managers often moan about contentious refereeing decisions as a means of diverting the narrative from matters they want to keep private. The 13 points Newcastle have failed to secure from leading situations this season appears relevant. The Newcastle boss certainly did not seem overly keen to mention that costly trend following his side’s failure to protect a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they had to settle for a point in. Yet Newcastle’s manager was surely right to question a decision made by the match officials not to award his team a penalty following a clear obstruction on their winger. With the score then 2-1, a spot-kick could have altered the outcome. Was the decision to offer the Chelsea defender the benefit of considerable doubt informed by the player's history for being skilled at drawing contact and sometimes simulating? Analysis from a well-known analyst was interesting. “He anticipates the contact,” was the analysis. “He knows the challenge is coming and he braces for it. I think he’s ready to go down. But the force and aggression there … that’s not shielding the ball.”
7. A 99.17% Certainty
Brentford’s first away win this season spelled relief for their manager. More than just enjoying the victory, Andrews spoke kindly about Wolves, the club he joined at 16. “I spent nine years here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is increasingly desperate; data analysts state – perhaps generously – their chances of relegation at 99.17%, leaving only pride at stake beyond honour. A senior professional brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
